MLB Offseason Thread

[Drunkenmaster]

The Nats have done nothing so far. Looks like the Yanks will be the high bidders on Matsuzaka which will leave room for others to go after Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito. Of course, those two players are out of the Nats league so where do you think they'll end up? Zito to the mets?

I think Detroit is a prime candidate for Barry Bonds. I'm not sure how many teams will be after him but he'd fit in nicely in Detroit. I still hope he retires, though.

[Kinbote]

Well, I really hope Zito goes to the Mets, because that'll mean he doesn't go to the Red Sox. He's going to get way more money than he's worth - really, he's altogether overrated; his star-stuff is predicated almost entirely on that Cy Young Award of his. His FIP - that is, for you non-stat people, fielding-independent ERA - has been over the past three seasons 4.57, 4.37, and 4.94 - in other words, his performance has been buoyed by Oakland's excellent defense. And he's a fly ball pitcher, which means in Boston he'd be murderized (by defense, and by homers from righties). On top of this, his strikeout rate has been dropping and his walk rate rising. Not somebody I'd feel secure investing big in.

Schmidt I'd like to see in a Sox uniform, provided he doesn't want too many years.

What we need, though, is bullpen help, especially if Papelbon is made a starter as is planned, and I don't see any on the market, or at least not any for whom a reliable projection can be made.

I don't know that Bonds would have any interest in Detroit. Anaheim - or, pardon me, Los Angeles of Anaheim - would be sensible. Oakland, if Thomas won't resign for a decent dollar.

[Drunkenmaster]

Is FIP where they make the big grid on the field and take where the balls were hit and decide if it would have been a hit if not for an outstanding play?

I can't think of any free agent relievers that are worth much. What would you think about Maddux moving into the Sox rotation? The guy is still pretty effective especially with some good defense behind him. He might also be available for a decent price. I think Anaheim already has a wealth of players and Bonds would be pretty unecessary but if Thomas doesn't resign with Oakland I could see Beane signing him to an incentive-laden contract.

[Drunkenmaster]

Don't know if you saw this, but it was an interesting article. Also, the article inside the article:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/sox_therapy/discussion/the_manny_question_again/

[Kinbote]

Who does Anaheim have that'll do above-average at DH? Who does Anaheim have that can take a walk?

Maddux will want some money, I imagine, and multiple years, too, given that there should be some competition for his services. At his age, that's dangerous - he could fall off the cliff at any moment. Also, the Sox are bound for a wretched outfield defense (unless Jacob Ellsbury has a truly remarkable spring training), and their infield won't be so hot, either, if Alex Gonzalez isn't back. I try to trust Theo, but I think, for my sanity, I'd best be looking forward to 2008.

I was about to say here's hoping for your sake that Bowden really does get the ax, which I've recently read rumored, but then again, maybe not - Stan Kasten's alleged list of choices is, believe it or not, even more rotten.

[Drunkenmaster]

Also, what does RSpt and RS/150 mean?

[Drunkenmaster]

Who does Anaheim have that'll do above-average at DH? Who does Anaheim have that can take a walk?

Maddux will want some money, I imagine, and multiple years, too, given that there should be some competition for his services. At his age, that's dangerous - he could fall off the cliff at any moment. Also, the Sox are bound for a wretched outfield defense (unless Jacob Ellsbury has a truly remarkable spring training), and their infield won't be so hot, either, if Alex Gonzalez isn't back. I try to trust Theo, but I think, for my sanity, I'd best be looking forward to 2008.

I was about to say here's hoping for your sake that Bowden really does get the ax, which I've recently read rumored, but then again, maybe not - Stan Kasten's alleged list of choices is, believe it or not, even more rotten. I'm all for a 20-something fresh out of Harvard with a nice computer but I don't see that happening. If nothing else, at least Bowden cleared out some dead wood from the bullpen.

[Kinbote]

Don't know if you saw this, but it was an interesting article. Also, the article inside the article:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/sox_therapy/discussion/the_manny_question_again/

I did see it, yeah. What I'd like to know is, how awful would Ortiz be at first, and is his knee to fragile to stand up to regular play there? Would the team be well-served by playing Papi at first and DHing Manny?

Thing is, too, we know that the Sox have proprietary defensive metrics - given the greatness of Manny's bat, and given that, with the raised luxury tax threshold, his contract's no great burden to the team, you have to wonder what those numbers say, given the team's continued willingness to trade him.

[Drunkenmaster]

I think it comes down to who's going to cost you more runs? I think it's tough for any fielder to play left field at Fenway. I don't think Papi can take a whole season at first. Could Manny make the move to first and the 2 could switch up the DH-ing?

[Peter]

I have no doubt that the mariners will go after Matsuzaka. They've always been keen on signing big japanese players. they also are in dire need of pitching and just happen to have some payroll free.

but i read that it'll cost a team $30 million just to TALK to matsuzaka. crazy, man.

[Kinbote]

Actually, the Mariners have announced that they're NOT going to pursue Matsuzaka.

I can't blame them. Good as he may be, the guy's also an enormous risk, considering the money he's going to get - 15 million over four years, I've heard, is the expected demand. With Scott Boras as his agent. Personally, I don't want to be on the hook for Roger Clemens money with a completely unproven guy.

Which is why Matsuzaka will be a Yankee, I suspect. They can absorb the cost of a flameout.

[Peter]

when did that come out? I hadn't read that. an article I read yesterday said that they had shown interest....i'm not very good at keeping up apparently.

[Peter]

oh there it is....let's hope they for Zito at least. he's made fools of the mariners hitters for years.

[Kinbote]

What you should really hope is that the Mariners fire Bill Bavasi. He's a ninny.

[Peter]

i'm sure that if the mariners are in the toilet again next year he'll find his way out or he'll get a big raise. those are the only two options. What I'm personally the most excited about is going to watch the cubs playing and seeing Lou Pinella go ape-shit fucking crazy at umpires and throwing third base into left field :yes: good times!

[Kinbote]

Also, what does RSpt and RS/150 mean?

I just noticed this, sorry. They're stat geek fielding metrics. RSpt is runs saved above the average for whatever player's playing time. RS/150 is that number if it were over the course of 150 games.

Some explanation here:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/dr_strangeglove_or_how_i_learned_to_stop_worrying_and_love_zone_rating1/

[Kinbote]

i'm sure that if the mariners are in the toilet again next year he'll find his way out or he'll get a big raise. those are the only two options. What I'm personally the most excited about is going to watch the cubs playing and seeing Lou Pinella go ape-shit fucking crazy at umpires and throwing third base into left field :yes: good times!

I'm surprised Pinella took the job. He wasn't too happy with the noncontending Devil Rays, and the Cubs are another rebuilding project.

[Drunkenmaster]

Ted!:Also, what does RSpt and RS/150 mean?

[Drunkenmaster]

I'm surprised Pinella took the job. He wasn't too happy with the noncontending Devil Rays, and the Cubs are another rebuilding project. I thought that was surprising, too. The Cubs need pitching, pitching, pitching. I believe they're close to resigning Aramis if they haven't already. He's a good player. They have some stuff to work with there. I have no idea what their farm system looks like.

[Kinbote]

Ted!:

Did you not notice the above response, or are you angling for something clearer?

[Drunkenmaster]

So sorry. Just noticed your response.

[Drunkenmaster]

Interesting stat, by the way.

[Kinbote]

Yeah, that seems to be the direction of new fielding stats, and I like it - breaking it down into runs makes it easy to link up with hitting stats, and simplifies the overall picture as regards player value.

[Drunkenmaster]

Indeed.

Where do you think Sosa ends up. He sure strikes out a lot. Seems like a prime candidate for the Yankees. He turned down $1 mill to play for the Nats last year. Surely no one other than the Yanks would pay him more than that.

[Peter]

I'm surprised Pinella took the job. He wasn't too happy with the noncontending Devil Rays, and the Cubs are another rebuilding project.

The Mariners were not a stellar team when Pinella signed up with them, they hadn't had a .500+ season in years! And some years later, they win 116 games under him. That, and the devil rays didn't have any money to throw around - the cubs do have some money (albeit not a ton).

I guess I'm not surprised.

[Peter]

Indeed.

Where do you think Sosa ends up. He sure strikes out a lot. Seems like a prime candidate for the Yankees. He turned down $1 mill to play for the Nats last year. Surely no one other than the Yanks would pay him more than that.

he should just retire. he's a nothing player without roids.

[Kinbote]

The Mariners were not a stellar team when Pinella signed up with them, they hadn't had a .500+ season in years! And some years later, they win 116 games under him. That, and the devil rays didn't have any money to throw around - the cubs do have some money (albeit not a ton).

I guess I'm not surprised.

True, but the Mariners had at the time a competent GM (Jim Hendry is a moron), and had, with the advent of Safeco, become a spending-capable team (the Cubs have always been big-market, and have always blown).

Mostly it's Jim Hendry, though, that's going to keep Lou from winning.

[Kinbote]

Also, whoever Sosa ends up signing with - someone will take a flyer on him - I expect he'll be cut before the end of spring training. He's got nothing, he loses, good day, sir.

[Drunkenmaster]

HE'S GOT NOWHERE ELSE TO GO! HE'S GOT NOWHERE ELSE TA GO-HOHOH!

[Kinbote]

That Indians-Padres trade was a good one for the Padres.

[Drunkenmaster]

Andy Brown looks promising but I see nothing special about Kouzmanoff. Of course, there was nothing special about Barfield, either.

[Kinbote]

Really? Barfield's topped out, yes, but Kouzmanoff can contribute now at a position where the Padres need contributions, and he projects to be a .300/.350/.500 hitter in a couple of years. Maybe even straight off.

[Drunkenmaster]

I didn't see Kouzmanoff's projected stats but I didn't find his minor league stats very impressive.

I'm dying to know what you think of your beloved BoSox shelling out 45 mill to talk with Matsuzaka!? I really hope he's not another Hideki.

[Kinbote]

Unimpressive? Are you kidding me?

2004, A: .330/.394/.526
2005, high A: .339/.401/.591
2006, AA: .396/.455/.684
2006, AAA: .350/.405/.620

Not only nice, but projects to pretty imediate impact-level major league play.

While I don't think the big DM will be worth that kind of money, given the wealth of the Sox, and the weakness of their rotation, and the weakness of this free agent class, I don't mind it being spent. Payroll's at about 95 mil right now, and they're willing to raise it to 145, so the guy's doable.

The Matsuster may not be a superstud ace guy, but he should be very, very good.

[Kinbote]

Well, okay, fifty-two's pretty steep, but fuck it, I'm excited. I want to see this so-called "gyroball." And I'm willing to guarantee that our new li'l Nip will have a better year than, say, Zito, wherever Zito lands.

[Drunkenmaster]

My bad, I had clicked on Barfields numbers. Yes, Kouzmanoff looks promising.

I thought it was reported that Matsuzaka does NOT throw the supposed "gyroball." I read that Zito was interested in the Rangers because of Ron Washington so I guess that's a possibility. I'm sure Zito will be over-paid, but he's definitely not a bad pitcher.

[Kinbote]

He's also a lot less good than people think, though. He's second tier at best. And his recent performances are chock full of warning signs - I wouldn't be too surprised by a collapse in the next year or two.

[Drunkenmaster]

That's possible but everything up until now is nice. He's a solid innings guy and he'll keep you in a lot of games. He's also been healthy up until now. Plus we must remember, this is a crappy free-agent market. If he gets Carlos Delgado type money, that'll be insane.

[Drunkenmaster]

I'd be more worried about Schmidt's second-half 4.76 ERA and inability to pitch in big games.

[Kinbote]

Yeah, Schmidt's K/9 dropped even harder than Zito's. I suspect it'll be two teams kicking themselves a few seasons from now.

It's going to be nuts, though, this offseason. Zito's getting 5/75 minimum. I mean, fer crissake, they're saying Gil fucking Meche is apt to end up with 10 mil a year.

[Drunkenmaster]

That's got to be due to the poor market. I think the Nats just signed a boatload of prospects and there's been some interest in Soriano. I'm still not quite sure why Bowden didn't unload him when he was probably at his peak value before the all-star break. I hope they can get some good prospects for him now, though.

[Kinbote]

It's a stretch to call those guys "prospects." More like "guys who can fill in for a half dozen games, here and there, as needed, and probably not humiliate themselves, while making minimum salary."

I don't know that I'd trust Bowden's drafting skills - wouldn't get any too excited about getting a prospect out of the deal for Soriano. But yeah, it was damned foolish not to get him out of there if they weren't planning to sign him. I can't imagine there weren't offers.

[Drunkenmaster]

Oh, well. Hopefully, he'll be fired soon.

I must say, I'm actually sold on the Matsuzaka deal now. It all makes sense. The Red Sox will have exclusive tv rights to show all of his starts in Japan, they would supposedly start a "Japanese Red Sox Nation," and hell, it seems they get a pretty good pitcher out of it. His salary could pay for itself inside of 3 years.

[Kinbote]

Yeah, I've read that he could bring them as much as fifteen million bucks a year. Plus, there's a very good chance that he'll be by far the best pitcher to have been on the market this offseason. Andy Petitte is one of the less impressive comparisons I've read - not bad for bad, that.

But, you know, don't feel bad. At least you've got, um...well, whoever it is that plays for the Nationals. Lord knows I've got no fucking idea.

[Drunkenmaster]

Nick Johnson is pretty damn good. The Nats still have him, right?

[Kinbote]

Well, maybe if he could play a full season. And run. But no, I suppose he's not bad.

[Drunkenmaster]

Okay, so Frank Thomas signs with the Blue Jays. Does Billy Beane now go after Bonds if he's available?

[Kinbote]

That's what I'm hearing. Which works out well for the A's. He's apt to cost a little less than Thomas, and apt to hit more than a little better.

I was a little shocked by the Thomas deal. I know he had a pretty good year, but he can't run at all, and his leg could snap off at any moment. Plus. at his age, there's always the risk of that bat disappearing completely. At least that second year isn't guaranteed, as had been initially reported.

I also saw a rumor of JD Drew going to the Red Sox for 2/30. Which would make me a very happy camper indeed.

Someone smart should take Ensberg off of Houston's hands. I understand they don't like him at all, despite his being, you know, in the upper tier of third basemen. I wonder if they'd be dumb enough to hand him over, along maybe with Lidge, for Mike Lowell, and maybe someone else.

[Kinbote]

Wow, crap, I just read a thing and it IS a guaranteed second year, with an option for a third. That's just stupid.

[Drunkenmaster]

Yeah, that's what I had heard on the radio earlier and I was pretty surprised. Did the A's have any kind of option on him or was he just a free agent?

[Kinbote]

ALSO, if we sign Drew, I hope that means we can unload Manny, ideally to the Los Angeles of California Angels of Anaheim of Orange County Angels, for Earvin Santana and that other kid whose name I never remember.

[Drunkenmaster]

LA of C of A of OC Angels sure could use another bat to protect Guerrero a bit. I'm still unsure of how much of their reportedly excellent group of prospects they're willing to part with. I was thinking they'd go after Bonds or Nomar.

[Drunkenmaster]

JD Drew would be a nice score, though.

[Kinbote]

Whoever signs Nomar, presuming it's for any kind of money, or for more than a year, is going to look fucking dumb. His first two months were great, and then he diiiiiied. Even if he could replicate his numbers from this year, still not what you want out of a first basemen, and my understanding is that he's no longer got the range to play elsewhere.

Which means he'd be perfect for the Angels. They love shitty first basemen.

[Drunkenmaster]

So I also saw a report that says the Cubs matched the Drew offer.

[Drunkenmaster]

Anyway, Nick Johnson played 147 games last year and posted a lovely .290 .428 .520

[Kinbote]

The .428 is nice, I'll grant you that. However, doesn't he haul a piano on his back?

How about that retarded Mets signing, of Alou? Let's block our top-notch prospect with someone 600 years old who's got a body made of glass and sub-Manny fielding. Smart! But, yeah, Minaya uses those advanced Famous Names That Speak Spanish metrics, so who am I to challenge his roster construction?

[Drunkenmaster]

Are you going to dog a first baseman for his footspeed?

He should've gone after Julio Franco. I saw him steal a base last year.

[Kinbote]

Well, you like guys to have some range. And one worries about a fat guy injury-prone on top of his girth.

[Drunkenmaster]

Oh, my God! If Soriano gets anything close to 8yr/$135 mill I'll just have to laugh. I'd say that helps Manny ALOT!!

[Kinbote]

I know, that's so completely insane. Money aside, do you want a 38 year old Soriano on your team?

Jim Hendry is an idiot. I suppose he's trying to make a splashy move so as to keep his job.

[Drunkenmaster]

Well, they did it. This sets a bad precedent for this off-season's acquisitions. If Manny's going to leave he better do it now.

[Drunkenmaster]

I also might add that they should've spent most of that dough on pitching. It's easier to find a bat than an arm.

[Kinbote]

Okay, well, the Dodgers just signed Juan Pierre for 5/45. Ouch. Gonna be hard for somebody to make a stupider move than that this offseason.

[Kinbote]

I also might add that they should've spent most of that dough on pitching. It's easier to find a bat than an arm.

Yeah, but WHAT pitching? Ain't a pretty landscape. Plus - and I suppose this is the very faint silver lining for Cubs fans - they've got the money to take on both. But still.

[Drunkenmaster]

What about taking a chance on Wolfe?

[Kinbote]

I reckon he'd be worth taking a flyer on as a fourth or fifth starter.

Which means I guess that someone's going to give him 7/124.

[Drunkenmaster]

Money is getting crazy in the MLB. It's kinda fun to watch, though. I believe the Cubs made a bad deal for Soriano, but he does make them better if he can produce numbers like last year. The question is, can he really play CF and will he ever learn to take a walk. If he does those two things and all else stays the same for a couple of years then the Cubs will have a nice team if they can find some hidden gems to pitch.

[Drunkenmaster]

Yeah, looking at the pitchers out there it's pretty bad. I guess the only way a lot of teams can go this offseason is offense.

[Drunkenmaster]

I reckon he'd be worth taking a flyer on as a fourth or fifth starter.

Which means I guess that someone's going to give him 7/124. HA!

[Kinbote]

I wouldn't be too confident - apparently his uptick in walks this season stemmed from IBBs and "pitching around" situations. When he's 37 and his power's gone and he can't run anymore it's going to be rouuuugh.

Also, the Cubs won't have a nice team. They'll have a team with four good players, one or two solid role-players, and not much else.

[Drunkenmaster]

I don't think the Cubs give a shit about when he's 37. They have to be thinking he's going to help them win now. I even saw a post somewhere that a misguided Cubs fan thinks they're trying to make a '97 Marlins-esque "go for broke" run. That's a bold statement with no pitching. They might win 80 games.

[Kinbote]

Yeah, it's Jim Hendry hoping to save his own ass.

[Drunkenmaster]

A rather desperate attempt at that.

[Kinbote]

His fatal errors: 1., hiring Dusty Baker; 2., assembling the team per Dusty Baker's requests; and 3., assuming each year that THIS season, surely, Wood and Prior will be healthy, despite the never-ending parade of evidence to the contrary.

[Drunkenmaster]

Justin Mourneau was an excellent MVP choice.

[Kinbote]

Justin Mourneau was an excellent MVP choice.

That's a joke, I hope. See my other thread.

[Drunkenmaster]

If Bowden trades Chad Cordero for Wily Mo Pena I'll be sick. Seriously!

[Kinbote]

Really? I wouldn't be especially happy about it, as a Sox fan. The Nats are rebuilding and don't need a Cordero. Pena has a damn decent chance of being a Juan Gonzalez or a Jim Rice. And despite having been around a bit is still only 24.

[Kinbote]

Also, based on interviews I've seen, he seems to be a pretty smart, cool guy.

[Drunkenmaster]

If Paps moves to the rotation the Sox will need a closer.

[Kinbote]

Allegedly it's a must that he becomes a starter - something to do with arm health. Still, I don't want to overpay for an "established" closer, or any reliever, since their out-getting abilities so often vanish overnight, or vary tremendously year to year. Rather take a flyer on a Gagne. Was hoping to take one on Wood, before he resigned.

Wouldn't you boys rather have a Proven Veteran? Say, Coco Crisp? Or Mike Timlin! Please?

[Drunkenmaster]

Ha, nice try. Coco will end up somewhere as a starter, hopefully just not in Washington.

[Kinbote]

What if I were to offer you Coco Crisp AND Mike Timlin? And threw in this bucket of gently used balls?

[Drunkenmaster]

What if I were to offer you Coco Crisp AND Mike Timlin? And threw in this bucket of gently used balls? How many balls are in the bucket? That greatly sweetened the pot.

[Kinbote]

They were Mike Lowell's balls originally, I think.

[Drunkenmaster]

Oh, so they probably smell like a transvestite hooker.

[Kinbote]

More like cancer, sir. That was a "Mike Lowell lost his testicles to testicular cancer" joke.

[Drunkenmaster]

I've never smelled cancer but I'm sure it's not pleasant.

[Kinbote]

Rotten potatoes is how I imagine it.

[Drunkenmaster]

Yeah or burnt hair.

So are the Sox really going to sign JD Drew? First of all, why would they? I don't see him as that attractive a player.

[Drunkenmaster]

Is Trot Nixon done or what?

[Kinbote]

Plus defense, plus speed, solid power numbers, great on-base skills? He'd be a good option any year, but he's by a big margin the best outfielder available this offseason.

As for Nixon - you never know, but I think he's on his way. His power evaporated last year, which tends to be a warning sign. I gather that his defense has declined as well.

[Drunkenmaster]

Well, his SLG, BA, and OBP are all in decline since 2004. Plus, how can you keep a guy on the field whose nickname is "DL Drew"? Are we talking about the same guy? He was 2 of 5 in SB's last year and stole 1 the year before in which he played less than half a season.

[Kinbote]

While he's been injured, his injuries have been of an unfortunate, accidental sort, rather than due to some chronic weak body part. And his 2004 season happened in an extreme hitter's park, while his 05 and 06 were in an extreme pitcher's park. He's only thirty and still has oodles of raw talent. I like the risk, especially in this market.

[Drunkenmaster]

I guess that's the beauty of money not being an issue. Any Matsuzaka news from Soxland?

[Drunkenmaster]

Also, if it's Manny to the Giants, and Piazza to the A's; where does that leave Bonds?

[Kinbote]

I don't think Manny's going anywhere.

[Drunkenmaster]

4/56 guarunteed for Drew? Wow.

[Drunkenmaster]

What the hell happened to baseballthinkfactory?

[Kinbote]

4/56 in this market is a GREAT deal. Best available player for the lowest cost? Okay by me. They can have Suckiano and Craplos Lee.

As for BBTF, I suspect someone forgot to pay their bill. I hope they sort it out shortly. I like a concise single source for news and rumors. Plus the snarky commentary.

[Kinbote]

Incidentally, re: BBTF, this was posted somewhere-or-other by Jim Furtado, the owner:

"I'm working on this. Apparently there was some kind of snafu when I transferred the domain to a different registrar last year. Although the domain shows current until next year at the new registrar (goddaddy.com), the old registrar (registerfly.com) somehow still has control of the domain."

[Drunkenmaster]

4/56 in this market is a GREAT deal. Best available player for the lowest cost? If he stays healthy I'll agree with you but that may be a big if. So do the Sox try and move Nixon or just let him go if they sign Drew?

[Drunkenmaster]

Sorry for all the Sox interest but the Nationals aren't doing anything except talking about trading solid prospects (like Larry Broadway). I'd kinda like to see them move Nick Johnson for a decent pitcher and call Broadway up. I think he's ready. Sadly, the Nats are still four or so years away so there's not much excitement there.

[Kinbote]

Nixon's a free agent, man. I hear maybe Oakland, maybe SF, maybe Philly.

Yeah, decent as a Johnson is, there's no point in keeping him around, if they can get good value in prospects. He'll be done by the time the Nats are ready to win (though once they get their new park it's possible they'll be able to buy contender status).

[Drunkenmaster]

So I read Trot may be offered arbitration? Interesting.

[Kinbote]

Did they or no? I haven't seen. It'd make sense to do so. A sandwich pick if he goes elsewhere, good enough compensation and no impediment to another team signing him, and he's good as a fourth outfielder or trade bait if he accepts.

[Drunkenmaster]

Yep
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2004/02/07/nixon_ready_for_campaign/

[Kinbote]

Rumor has it that as soon as Drew signs Manny's out the door to either San Diego or the Dodgers. Which deal I'd like better depends upon the whos involved, for which there're several variations. Jake Peavy would be nice, I reckon. But if LaRoche AND Kemp could be got from LA along with one of them pitching guys of theirs, that'd be very super. It's doable, maybe, as Ned Colletti seems to be as young-kid-hating as his idiot mentor Sabean.

[Drunkenmaster]

Gagne seems like he'd be a nice pick up for the Sox.

[Kinbote]

I agree, depending on the money. I don't like the idea of spending for a "proven" closer.

Lugo too! He's nothing special, of course, but he and Drew are an enormous upgrade, offensively, over Gonzalez and Nixon, and Drew defensively over Nixon. Assuming we get D-Mat, which I am, this is an ALCS team, easy. I'm reminded of the 2003 Sox.

[Drunkenmaster]

Apparently Bonds just signed a 1 year deal with the Giants.

[Drunkenmaster]

Gammons says he thinks the Sox will sign D-Mat soon. Apparently he's coming over to America to do a Nike commercial so maybe something next week?

[Kinbote]

If that's true about Bonds, too bad. I'd really like to see him in the AL, as a DH; with that batting eye, he still could be scary good.

Speaking of DHing, it'll be interesting to see what Piazza can do in Oakland. His first half/second half splits indicate he's been getting very worn out the past four or five years.

I hope so, with D-Mat. From what I've read it sounds like Scott Boras being the usual douchebag is what's kept it from getting done so far. The Red Sox want him; D-Mat wants to play in the US; Seibu wants its 51 mil. He's the only obstacle. As usual.

[Kinbote]

Incidentally, I've been assuming D-Mat as a decent 3.50 to 4.00 starter; just imagine this Sox team if he's as good as he maybe COULD be (a 2.50 type). And he's only 26, which means his potential is by no means definitely already reached.

[Drunkenmaster]

If the sox sign matsuzaka and pettite I could definitely see them winning it all. Especially if Manny stays and has something to play for. The lineup is frightening already. Those two starters and the rotation could be solid.

[Drunkenmaster]

As an asside, when did Club Soda Kenny get on the O & A show?

[Drunkenmaster]

Bonds detail: 1 yr/$16 mill plus $4 mill in incentives.

If I put the over/under of how many games he plays this year at 110 what are you taking?

[Kinbote]

If the sox sign matsuzaka and pettite I could definitely see them winning it all. Especially if Manny stays and has something to play for. The lineup is frightening already. Those two starters and the rotation could be solid.

Pettite's a Yankee or retired. But I think Beckett's going to be a lot better, especially now that the Sox have a competent pitching coach. Plus Paps, don't forget. The bullpen is my only point of concern.

Club Soda Kenny must've appeared sometime during the XM-only exile; he's been around as long as they've been on CBS, I think.

[Drunkenmaster]

Can you believe what middle relievers are going for these days? I think you can get a 5th starter for less.

[Drunkenmaster]

Club Soda Kenny must've appeared sometime during the XM-only exile; he's been around as long as they've been on CBS, I think.
Whenever I think of CSK, I'm always drawn to the "Quantum Dice" call in after 9/11. That is maybe the best improvised bit I've ever heard!

[Drunkenmaster]

Looks like Gagne to the Giants. Boras is doing his best to make sure the Sox don't sign Matsuzaka.

[Kinbote]

Boras always tries to stretch things to the last minute - putting the Fear into a team to extract maximum dollars and all that. The report I saw was from the Boston Herald, which tends not to be super reliable. I'm bugged, but not too worried. It's very much in the interests of Seibu, and D-Mat, and the Sox to get something done - and in Scotso's too, if he'd ever like to represent another Japanese player.

Wow, that ever-exciting NL West is really shaping up. Maybe somebody will even win 80 games!

[Drunkenmaster]

Looks like Marcus Giles is soon to be available.

[Drunkenmaster]

Looks like Gagne to the Giants. Hmm... make that the Rangers.

[Kinbote]

D-Mat now, AND at a bargain price! Wowsers. And with Manny still on board. This is a scary Sox team.

Moreso if they sign Clemens, to whom it's rumored they made a very impressive pitch. If he came on board Beckett would be made closer.

[Drunkenmaster]

Yes, the D-mat signing was definitely a bargain. Even if he eats up 200 innings and has an ERA under 4.00 you could say he was a steal. His upside is pretty big with number one starter potential. Surely Clemens won't go back to Houston. I guess it's Yankees or Sox. I understand he possibly wants to start pitching around June again.

[Drunkenmaster]

Gotta hand it to Jimbo for unloading Vidro on the Mariners and actually getting prospects in return no matter how shitty! What were the M's thinking, seriously?

[Kinbote]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Bavasi might be the dumbest GM in baseball now. Even dumber maybe than Dave Littlefield - at least some of the stupid things Littlefield does are ordered by his owner. Honestly, what a maroon!

I like Boston's chances of getting Clemens, if he wants to play. Given his self-regard, I'm sure the Great Hero Returning to the Fold angle is very appealing to him, and the Sox are willing to grant the special privileges he wants. Given what I know about the way Joe Torre, and the Yankees in general, operate, I kind of doubt they'd be as accomodating.

[Kinbote]

Also, is it just me, or is that Vernon Wells deal totally stupid?

[Drunkenmaster]

Also, is it just me, or is that Vernon Wells deal totally stupid?Did they trade him yet? I couldn't find anything on it. The Jays do have Big Frank now so I don't know if they need Wells.

[Drunkenmaster]

Nevermind, I found it. Yes, that is insane. Seven years with a no-trade clause? Why? He's a nice player, but damn.

[Kinbote]

Yeah, especially given that this market is bound to deflate in two or three years. Ricciardi is I think another GM in "splashy deals might save my job" mode.

[Drunkenmaster]

I had such high hopes for Ricciardi. He has a nice pedigree but hasn't done much.

[Drunkenmaster]

Zito to San Fran for 7/126. I'd have thought Boras would get more. Besides the obvious, being that I don't think Zito is worth that, it doesn't seem like they got a bad price for a number one starter (if that's what you want to call him). Honestly, I had no idea that San Fran was in the running. They still suck.

[Kinbote]

It seems like a pretty dumb signing to me. Eighteen million for an at-best #2? Seven years for any pitcher? No wonder the Rangers and Mets balked. I wouldn't go above-and-beyond like that for anyone non-elite. Santana? Sure. Vintage Pedro, vintage Clemens? You bet. Barry Zito? Not so much.

Especially given that Carlos Zambrano and Santana are going to be on the market the next couple of years. And however hyperinflated the marketplace is, I find it unlikely that anyone's going to drop more than 20 a year on a pitcher.

[Drunkenmaster]

I was only surprised to find out it was the Giants. I knew he would get crazy money because he was the number one free agent and the market is insane right now. Yes, the contract is crazy but it would seem Sabean might be under the gun a little bit trying to get people to re-up on their tickets. He needed to make a splash and even though it wasn't a good one, it'll help sell tickets and take some of the headlines away from Bonds. Unless I missed something, Bonds still hasn't signed due to some discrepancy over his contract being guarunteed if he were to be indicted and unable to play.

[Kinbote]

If Sabean had a brain he'd have cut ties with Bonds, not signed Zito, and realized that cornering the market on guys over the age of 35 is not a viable long-term strategy. They need major rebuilding. Seriously, Giant success over the past bunch of years has been Bonds-based - Sabean's just a lucky ape.

[Drunkenmaster]

Oh, definitely. It's a house of cards over there. They may be in for quite a down-turn, too.

[Kinbote]

What's irritating is that they're juuust mediocre enough that nobody in power's going to see a need for radical change.

[Peter]

Zito has owned the Mariners offense for the last 5 years, i'm just glad they won't have to face him anymore.

[Drunkenmaster]

Sabean must have a golden parachute.

[Drunkenmaster]

Zito has owned the Mariners offense for the last 5 years, i'm just glad they won't have to face him anymore. Why wouldn't you want the M's to catch him when his downturn begins?

[Drunkenmaster]

Alright, is Sabean gonna get this Bonds deal done?

[Drunkenmaster]

Well, Barry passed his physical.

[Kinbote]

He's not going to quit until 756, I don't think, come hell or high water or the Devil Rays.

[Drunkenmaster]

Depends on if his knees keep him upright. They could blow out at any moment. He must really want to hit some more in the bay to play in that condition. Why get a record that no one will give you credit for? Selig doesn't even want to be there when it happens. Oh, the irony in that.

[pedrucho]

Hello

What you thinking about it?

<a href="http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/~iiscor/d/6/">Vicodin shop</a>

Bye

[Drunkenmaster]

One of the authors of Game of Shadows says he really think Bonds will be indicted now with the new special prosecuter.

[OakenCipher]

The season nears so I must get this essential statement out.

Go Angels!

Some may disagree.

[Kinbote]

There's no need to disagree, particularly, since the Angels are primed to score about six runs all year, if they're lucky. Sad thing when your team's second-best hitter is probably Juan Rivera. And your new boy Matthews, har.

[OakenCipher]

I have to agree. I couldn't believe they didn't get someone last year before the trade deadline. And in the offseason: good job, Bill Stoneman: Gary Matthews Jr.? Not horribly bad, but that's it? Lovely how he brought a sullied past to the team, too. I miss Edmonds (no matter how much of a jerk he is), Glaus, and a young Salmon.

Figgins had better attempt to steal home a bit more often.

[Kinbote]

At least you're rid of dead-weight-Erstad. And maybe if you're lucky you can watch Jered Weaver lose fifteen games despite posting a sub-3.00 ERA.

[OakenCipher]

Yeah. Erstad has been useless - one near batting title, then nothing. And more nothing. Who cares that he gets dirty and has perfected the art of the game face? He's a great defensive player, though, at first or in center.
Simultaneous whimpers and guffaws broke from me after reading your second comment. Damn.
I am assured by the tv and radio broadcasters that our up and coming farm boys will raise hell, though, and of course there's no reason not to believe them.

[Kinbote]

Erstad's made a career out of two good seasons. But hey, he has "hustle." Guess that's why you guys signed Matthews instead of, say, J.D. Drew? That's why you Angels haven't had any championships recently - you let Eckstein go. Because it's grit that wins - not "OBP" or "runs" or other such fanciful limp-wristed notions.

As for Erstad's defense - had he been played in CF in recent years, he'd have retained some value. But given the relative nonimportance of defense at first, and Erstad's offensive black hole, he's been an enormous burden. Don't know whether to pin that on Stoneman or Scioscia. Probably both. I'd probably blame each equally for your useless crapbucket Anderson, too. Moreso Stoneman, though, since he signed him to the bullshit contract.

If by "raise hell" they mean "set records for strikeouts," they may well be correct. I assume it's Wood and Kendrick and McPherson that are being spoken of; I'm not an Angel buff.

[OakenCipher]

Not bad for a nonbuff. At one time I explained Anderson's automaton halfassed play as his ability to make the game look easy by his innate talent. I abandoned that ploy years ago, but some fans remain deluded or intentionally spew that type of justifying rigamarole concerning him.
Stoneman is to blame, and there has been a call for his head by many, but others were silenced by the signing of Guerrero a few years back. A fluke, I say, and anyone who doesn't discern his obvious timidity and lack of prescience is just not paying attention. I hope the mob somehow gets ignited again soon, though, either by the incontrovertable evidence against him or some fierytongued rhetoric, it doesn't matter which. Scoscia wouldn't have to play so much smallball if he had more sluggers in the lineup.
McPherson has yet to impress me, even slightly, but Kendrick and Morales may do something. Who knows, though: it seems every year highly touted prospects in too many organizations are called up and don't even make a whisper. I'm almost convinced that there are some double agent scouts at work.

[Drunkenmaster]

Ted, what's the gyro-ball look like? Matsu seemed to have a nice outing from what I saw today but I didn't see the whole thing.

[Kinbote]

Terry, it's a myth: he just has a particularly sweet slider.

Ligneous Codebreaker, are you a stats guy or one of those old-fashioned joes?

[Drunkenmaster]

I saw that Paps moved back to closer. I guess his arm can handle it now?

[Drunkenmaster]

The Rockies are interested in Chad Cordero. Brilliant! Why not bring a fly-ball pitcher into Coors?

[Kinbote]

I can't quite figure the Paps move out. Have their bullpen boys been THAT bad? Well, kind of, but that much worse than expected? I'd much rather Paps throwing 200 innings of 3.50 to 4.00 ball than 60 or 70 of 1.00 (or more realistically, 2.00; last season is unlikely to be repeated). Especially when those 200 innings will be filled instead by a Julian Tavarez. Maybe they feel fairly certain they're going to get Clemens? Maybe Epstein is indeed turning into the boob I've lately thought he's seemed and is caving to public pressure? Maybe Lucchino is sticking his Mediterranean nose into things again? Stupid caving to player pressure? I've got no idea. Don't like one bit, though.

It would be ill-advised, Colorado Cordero. Though I understand that since they installed the humidor Colorado's park factors have swung in a more neutral direction.

That reminds me, have you played with baseball-reference.com's "neutralize stats" button? It's a great deal of fun.

[Drunkenmaster]

From what I read the Sox will possibly just throw an arm in the 5th spot until Jon Lester is ready maybe sometime in April. They could do worse.

That neutralize stats button is cool but I haven't had time to play around with it yet.

[Kinbote]

I pretty strongly doubt Lester's going to be ready in April. And even if he is, I don't expect a whole lot, performance-wise. He was solid last year, yeah, but he was also lucky. He's going to be very good in the future, for sure, but that's a few years away. I'd rather start Paps and put Lester in the pen (which some say is the best thing to do with young up-and-coming pitchers - they can be very useful while still developing, and with less pressure). But what do I know.

I get a big kick out of converting players of previous eras into a more modern context. And the 2000 Coors Field context is great for a laugh. Ted Williams's 1941 season, for instance - already an amazing .406/.553./.735, in that 2K Coors it becomes a sublimely ridiculous .458/.605/.831, with 48 homers, 170 RBI, and 190 walks.

[Drunkenmaster]

Do you subscribe to that site? Do Maris' 61 homers at 2K Coors.

[OakenCipher]

Terry, it's a myth: he just has a particularly sweet slider.

Ligneous Codebreaker, are you a stats guy or one of those old-fashioned joes?

The latter. And this, I suppose, is solely because my days are too damn busy to pour over stats. Although I do harbor a budding desire to crawl toward a conglomeration of the two - a type of Renaissancefan, if you will. This won't happen, I hate but am glad to say, because I have warring impulses between interests that always seem to cut eachother down and make me an eclectic neophyte in too, too many endeavors. I hide from my baseball instincts and interests daily just so I can lead a normal life, but this doesn't stop me from peeking around the corner as often as possible.

[Drunkenmaster]

Just plagarize baseball think factory like I do.

[Drunkenmaster]

I do like to look at numbers, though. They tell a lot more than announcers who say a guy "has all the tools" is a "winner" or "this guy has grit." I fucking hate "grit."

[Kinbote]

I get a real kick out of knowing that the efficacy of dramatic human action can be objectively quantified.

Also, Maris '61 to 2K Coors: .324/.435/.747, with 79 HR and 215 RBI - not as dramatic as one might expect. Of course, I'd never realized that, to accompany those 61 home runs, Maris managed only 16 doubles and 4 triples. Leaden legs, I guess?

[Drunkenmaster]

I think he's what would be called an "ice-wagon." 79 homeruns and 215 rbi's are incredible.

[Drunkenmaster]

Carl Pavano = Yankees #1 starter. They better average about 15 runs a game this year.

[DrHibbert]

Are you serious!? D:

[Drunkenmaster]

Looks like it. They must really be banking on Clemens. Even with Clemens....yikes....

[Kinbote]

It means nothing - he's number one only by dint of rest - Torre's keeping everyone on their "day" - and who starts game one of a 162-game season is completely meaningless, anyway. They still have Mussina and Pettite. And Wang, though he's sure to come down to league-average this year. And who knows, Pavano could be okay, if his tampon doesn't fall out and break his toe.

[Drunkenmaster]

Well, what I mean is their rotation isn't overly impressive and other than Pettite, they didn't do much in the offseason. Which makes me think they're going to go hard after Clemens.

What's up with dropping Delcarmen to AAA?

[Drunkenmaster]

Is there any truth to the Manny for Ichiro rumor?

[DrHibbert]

God I hope not. Getting rid of Ichiro would be stupid, not just for performance but also for marketing, fan loyalty, etc.

[Kinbote]

Delcarmen: he wasn't any too impressive this spring and is best served, like Hansen, by definite innings.

Ramirez-Ichiro: whatever would be gained on defense wouldn't begin to make up for the offensive loss. Sportswriters perhaps are Japan-happy, what with D-Mat and all.

[Drunkenmaster]

Delcarmen: he wasn't any too impressive this spring and is best served, like Hansen, by definite innings.

Ramirez-Ichiro: whatever would be gained on defense wouldn't begin to make up for the offensive loss. Sportswriters perhaps are Japan-happy, what with D-Mat and all.
But I was thinking that Delcarmen would be necessary with the gaps in the pen or say 5th starter position.

I think Boston letting Manny go would be a HUGE error and Theo's already got enough people wondering with some of the moves. There are two things you can be sure of with Manny: he will relieve himself in left field at some point during the season and at another point (or maybe the same stretch) he will carry the Sox for 2-3 weeks. He is a tremendous hitter and compliments the lineup nicely.

[Kinbote]

I guess the idea is that a Delcarmen isn't going to be substantially better than a whoever-the-fuck-their-twelfth-pitcher-Lopez-I-think is.

Yeah, he's still one of the best hitters in the majors, and really is probably one of the best all-time. And his defense is, if anything, underrated. For all the boneheaded plays he makes, he makes almost as many handy ones. And more sabermetrically, his defensive ratings are pretty severely undermined by playing at Fenway - the standard metrics apparently consider wall-balls catchable.

[Drunkenmaster]

What's his rode fielding stat? That may give a better view of his defensive value.