MLB Playoffs, Call Your Shots [Archive]

Peter

10-03-2006, 08:31 PM

Time to own up and make your official call for each series.

Here's mine:

American League

A's vs. Twins: A's Win
Yanks vs. Tigers: Yanks Win

A's Vs Yanks: Yanks Win

National League:
Padres vs. Cardinals: Cardinals Win
Mets vs. Dodgers: Mets Win

Cardinals vs. Mets: Met's win

Yankees vs. Mets: METS WIN.

That's right motherfuckers!

Kinbote

10-03-2006, 11:52 PM

A's/Twins: A's
Tigers/Yankees: Yankees
Padres/Cardinals: Cardinals
Mets/Dodgers: Mets

A's/Yankees: A's
Mets/Cardinals: Mets

A's/Mets: A's.

Peter

10-04-2006, 12:32 AM

You really think the pitching staff for the A's will be able to subdue all those Yankee bats? Especially considering the amount of playoff experience the Yankees have as a team and the tremendous advantage the yankees have at home...I think it's a very tall order than a very young pitching staff might not be able to fill.

Kinbote

10-04-2006, 01:34 AM

I don't believe in playoff experience, for one - to the extent that it exists, I don't think it's a difference-maker. The Yankees have a fine lineup, to be sure, but their defense blows, and so does their pitching. It won't be a cake-walk or anything - really, it's probably close to 50/50 - but Oakland's an underrated team.

The Chuck

10-04-2006, 03:12 AM

El Loto

10-04-2006, 10:49 AM

Ladbrokes have the Yankees at 6/4 and the Mets at 4/1.

New York Yankees 6/4
New York Mets 4/1
Oakland Athletics 5/1
St Louis Cardinals 7/1
Minnesota Twins 9/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 12/1
San Diego Padres 14/1
Detroit Tigers 25/1

Who fancies a bet on the Tigers?

These are World Series odds.

drumloops

10-04-2006, 05:39 PM

Yankees...their defense blows

Manny Ramirez would disagree with you. :-D

http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2006/06/06/1149648945_9360.jpg

Drunkenmaster

10-04-2006, 06:42 PM

A's/Twins: A's
Tigers/Yankees: Yankees
Padres/Cardinals: Cardinals
Mets/Dodgers: Mets

A's/Yankees: A's
Mets/Cardinals: Mets

A's/Mets: A's. Same. Thanks for typing all of that out for me.

Drunkenmaster

10-04-2006, 06:44 PM

If I was a Met fan, I'd be real worried about that shaky starting rotation. What once was pretty much a guaranteed World Series pass is looking less and less likely once Pedro went down. It's looking worse now that El Duque will most likely miss his first start. I think the Mets' bats are good enough to get them to the WS even with their poor starting rotation. They have a good pen, though. Let's face it, the NL sucks. The Cards backed in to the playoffs and the Mets' rotation has fallen apart. I still don't count the Padres out, though.

Drunkenmaster

10-06-2006, 07:23 PM

Go A's! La dee da!! :bop:

Drunkenmaster

10-06-2006, 11:01 PM

Kenny Rogers pitched a masterful game tonight. C'mon Tigers!1

Peter

10-07-2006, 02:58 AM

well fuck, it looks like the tigers are going to pwn the yankees and my predictions will mean jack shit. oh well.

mr. dynamite

10-07-2006, 04:24 AM

uhh... its only 1-2 foolio
dont really understand the concept of a series ehh??
its ok, not all of us can be sensible

DrHibbert

10-07-2006, 11:05 AM

I hope the Tigers do pull it off tonight. If they go back to NY I think they'll lose and the Yankees will go back to being their arrogant selves. And lose to the A's. Either way I've got to like the A's chances of winning it all right now (not that I like the A's).

This sucks. I don't like the A's, Mets, or Cardinals much. The Dodgers and Padres appear to be finished. Detroit's the last team I'll root for and they don't even look very good to me. Anyway, go Tigers.

Drunkenmaster

10-07-2006, 12:52 PM

You should like the A's!! What's not to like? Best GM in baseball, comeback player of the year, rising star in Nick Swisher, great pitching?

Kinbote

10-07-2006, 02:58 PM

I'm not sure I'd call Swisher a rising star. He sucked up the joint June through August. And though his walk rate has improved this year, he still strikes out too much. His top similarity scores on baseball-reference are Phil Plantier (flameout), Jose Cruz (okay contributor), and Greg Vaughn (solid-unspectacular). Too early to say, though, and these things are never predictable.

And speaking of monthly splits, why the hell'd Nomar get voted comeback player of the year? He began spectacularly, I'll grant that, but from July on he hit .242/.310/.415. Sucked up the joint, that is to say. And another fucking muscle tear? Nomar is the steroid king.

Kinbote

10-07-2006, 10:13 PM

Meanwhile, Tigers over Yankees? I must admit my surprise. It's looking good for Oakland, I think.

DrHibbert

10-07-2006, 10:15 PM

Think A-Rod will be a Yankee next year? How many years of .130 hitting in the playoffs can the Yankees take?

Kinbote

10-07-2006, 10:28 PM

He's not going anywhere. There're only a few teams who could/would take on his contract, and it'd be nigh-impossible to get equal value in return. Plus, Brian Cashman's a smart GM: I don't think he's about to willy-nilly dump the best player in baseball.

Of course, old George could get ornery, as he does, and force something dumb.

If somebody's got to be got rid of, I reckon I'd make it Torre.

Drunkenmaster

10-07-2006, 10:41 PM

Kinbote

10-07-2006, 10:49 PM

Agreed, though Thome was a legit choice.

Drunkenmaster

10-07-2006, 11:32 PM

Indeed. But they didn't make the play offs and that does matter.

Drunkenmaster

10-07-2006, 11:35 PM

Ted, do you think Steinberger would send A-Rod out west out of frustration? I know Cashman would be steadfastly against it, but Steinie's gotta be fed up with the return on investment here. The Angels have a stupendously awesome farm system, though the Yanks rarely deal in the prospect game.

Kinbote

10-07-2006, 11:52 PM

Well, the Angels are probably one of the few teams a deal could reasonably be made with.

Even if Steinbrenner had the urge to toss Rodriguez, I'm not sure he would - he'd at least want perceived, if not actual, value in return, and even that'd be tough.

Of course, the return on his investment has been superb. Be even better if they'd moved Jeter, a defensive butcher, to third, and kept A-Rod at his steady short. But to think A-Rod hasn't gotten it done for the Yankees is ridiculous.

DrHibbert

10-08-2006, 12:14 AM

One could argue that he has or hasn't gotten it done. But I think it's far from ridiculous to think that he hasn't.

Kinbote

10-08-2006, 12:34 AM

I don't see how an MVP award, a .396 OBP, and no fewer than 35 home runs each year could be construed as not getting it done.

Drunkenmaster

10-08-2006, 01:08 AM

I don't think a rod's a great fielder.

Kinbote

10-08-2006, 01:32 AM

Maybe not, but he's a hell of a lot better than Jeter, who nobody's talking about running out of town.

DrHibbert

10-08-2006, 10:59 AM

Well if all you want to look at is what he's done in the regular season, then yeah, no one can argue he hasn't gotten it done. I'd say that definition is a little too narrow, and I think a lot of Yankee fans agree.

Peter

10-08-2006, 01:29 PM

uhh... its only 1-2 foolio
dont really understand the concept of a series ehh??
its ok, not all of us can be sensible

in a five game series, three wins takes the series...so if one team has two wins, they only need to win won more, whereas the other needs to win 2. I do know what I'm talking about here. I've been watching baseball since I was 8 years old...I still remember the home run Joe Carter hit to left field to win the world series for the blue jays way back when :)

Regardless, the tigers humiliate the yankees. Steinbrenner has already said that he wants to rid himself of Torre and bring Lou Pinella back which would be great for Lou Pinella seeing as how he's pretty much a genius manager when he has good solid players.

Kinbote

10-08-2006, 01:35 PM

a genius manager when he has good solid players.

Anyone can be a genius manager, given good players.

Peter

10-08-2006, 02:19 PM

Who were the big names of the 2001 Mariners that won 116 games? There weren't any big names. Put Pinella with the players that the Yankees have and it's a potential killing machine.

Kinbote

10-08-2006, 02:51 PM

What do big names have to do with winning baseball games? Nothing, last I knew.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure it was Olerud and Martinez getting on base forty percent of the time, Boone hitting 37 home runs, Ichiro stroking 240 hits, and a team ERA+ of 119 that won those 116 games. Not Lou, you know, making a brilliant pitching change here and there or something. Even Dusty Baker couldn't have fucked that up.

Peter

10-08-2006, 03:27 PM

You seem to forget the style in which the mariners played that year. They based all their efforts offensively on run production - hit and run, stealing bases, sacrificing to move runners over, etc - many of which were calls made by Lou Pinella. I solid manager also knows how and when to use his bullpen (say in the 8th inning with a score tie, the manager will know how well his current pitcher does against each batter as well as which reliever would have a better chance of making an out). I think you discount the amount of work managers do on a mental level.

Kinbote

10-08-2006, 04:59 PM

I don't. Sabermetric studies estimate that a good manager's effect on his team is unlikely to be more than three wins a season.

Also: "run production" - that style of baseball REDUCES a team's likelihood of winning over the course of a season. Outs are scarce resources. Stealing success must be on the order of 80% for there to be a positive effect. These things only become useful in the playoffs, where, due to the limited number of games, immediate outcome can outstrip process.

Anyway. Great teams are made up of great players assembled by great general managers. Field managers are a cog in the human resources machine.

Drunkenmaster

10-08-2006, 08:52 PM

Torre didn't lose that series. A shitty pitching staff did.

10-09-2006, 08:25 AM

I hardly know anything about baseball but I've watched several games on TV now. I didn't understand how Mr. Commentator kept going on about the Yankees having the best hitting lineup ever and getting 0 runs in that 3rd game.

Also I was surprised when the playoffs started that relatively few teams make the cut for the playoffs. Only 4 teams from each league; a stricter cut than some sports.

I'm looking forward to watching some more games.

Narcissistic Nihilist

10-09-2006, 11:32 AM

Only 4 teams from each league; a stricter cut than some sports.

...especially after a 162 game season.

I guess that just makes it more special to get there, and even more disappointed when you team continually just misses out. :(

DrHibbert

10-09-2006, 11:39 AM

And some purists want to return it to how it was before - 2 teams from each league. :O I like the current system.

Kinbote

10-09-2006, 07:42 PM

Yeah, I like the wild card - it's not exactly uncommon that a second place team in one division is markedly superior to a first place team in another. Though I don't like the proposals being bandied about to expand the playoffs yet more: getting to them ought have some meaning. The setup in hockey and basketball is fucking retarded.

10-10-2006, 04:45 PM

I agree the NBA is too generous with playoff spots. Often the first round feels meaningless. I dunno anything about hockey.

But baseball - I like how it gives you a chance to really know the teams that are in the playoffs. I also like that everything is series based, even in the regular season. I'm starting to like this baseball more and more I think. I'm planning to watch the first Oakland-Detroit game tonight.

...especially after a 162 game season.

I guess that just makes it more special to get there, and even more disappointed when you team continually just misses out. :(

Who's your team?

Kinbote

10-10-2006, 10:23 PM

Will, if you want to get in on the right and proper ground floor with baseball, get yourself a copy of Bill James's Historical Abstract (http://www.amazon.com/Bill-James-Historical-Baseball-Abstract/dp/0743227220/sr=8-1/qid=1160533331/ref=pd_bbs_1/102-3820940-3426513?ie=UTF8). Despite the dry title it's fascinating, funny, and fun. And will keep you from all the bullshit sportswriters and game announcers would have you believe.

Narcissistic Nihilist

10-11-2006, 01:39 AM

Who's your team?

The Philadelphia Phillies of course!

Always the best team for a long stretch of the season, but always the worst for a long stretch too.

Kinbote

10-11-2006, 01:54 AM

Former Phillies home the Baker Bowl (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baker_Field) is probably my favorite defunct ballpark.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/1/1e/Baker_Bowl_aerial1.JPG

That would've been such a fucking cool place to watch a game.

Kinbote

10-11-2006, 01:59 AM

On the subject of ballparks, let me point out this wonderful site - http://www.minorleagueballparks.com/

I REALLY love this one, in someplace called Johnstown, Pennsylvania. It's achingly ideal for a ballgame.

http://www.minorleagueballparks.com/pointair.jpg

http://www.minorleagueballparks.com/pointnet.jpg

http://www.minorleagueballparks.com/point.jpg

DrHibbert

10-11-2006, 09:56 AM

I just drove through Johnstown in Spring. Didn't see the ballfield. Johnstown is famous for flooding, especially the one in 1889 when the dam broke and killed thousands of people.

Peter

10-11-2006, 01:49 PM

Ok...

Detroit vs. As - Detroit...
Mets vs. Cards - Mets

and then I gotta believe that the mets will do it...as all good things come to an end.

Drunkenmaster

10-11-2006, 05:36 PM

Don't give up on the A's. History over the past 4 years says that they will win.

Drunkenmaster

10-11-2006, 05:37 PM

On the subject of ballparks, I like Rosenblatt (home of the CWS) and I love Zephyr Field in N.O.

DrHibbert

10-11-2006, 08:43 PM

Tigers in 7, Cardinals in 7. Then Cardinals in 7.

Peter

10-11-2006, 09:49 PM

I haven't "given up" on the A's, I just don't care for them. Great pitching, solid offense...I know I know I know...I just don't care for them.

Drunkenmaster

10-11-2006, 11:19 PM

Okay, it's now highly unlikely that the A's will win.

Peter

10-12-2006, 12:52 PM

they gotta win two more.................in detroit.

Drunkenmaster

10-12-2006, 05:19 PM

Drunkenmaster

10-12-2006, 05:21 PM

Ted- Have you read this Baseball Between the Numbers (http://www.amazon.com/Baseball-Between-Numbers-Prospectus-Experts/dp/0465005969/sr=1-1/qid=1160688007/ref=pd_bbs_1/104-1672271-7341523?ie=UTF8&s=books) book by the Baseball Prospectus writers? I've been thinking of picking it up.

Kinbote

10-13-2006, 10:01 PM

I haven't read it, but I wouldn't mind doing so. Just remember that their WARP stat is a flawed metric.

Kinbote

10-13-2006, 10:02 PM

I'd advise Bill James's Historical Abstract before a Prospectus product, though.

Aaron

10-14-2006, 08:40 PM

Detroit is now in the World Series... I'm hoping the Cards win now.

mr. dynamite

10-15-2006, 12:44 AM

youre nuts man,
the cardinals are red hot!!

they managed to win a game where their ace let up 6 runs,
and the third man in their rotation pitched a shutout through 7 (or was it 8???) tonight

AND
scott spiezio's hot bat will get you every time~~~

beware the cardinals... ilove it .

Narcissistic Nihilist

10-15-2006, 02:28 AM

Detroit is now in the World Series... I'm hoping the Cards win now.

Me too. I am really rooting for the Tigers.

Peter

10-15-2006, 04:52 AM

scott spiezio's hot bat will get you every time~~~
.

i'm glad spiezio is doing well...because when he played for my mariners, he was a piece of shit.

Kinbote

10-15-2006, 03:10 PM

Nothing strikes fear into the heart of the opposition like a 34 year-old backup player with sub-average career numbers in each major offensive category riding some good luck.

Peter

10-15-2006, 03:52 PM

The media loves that shit, too, Ted :rolleyes:

10-15-2006, 09:48 PM

My heart sank when Big Frank had the bases juiced in the bottom of the 9th last night with 2 outs and he popped it up. He's much better against junk pitchers and the Tigers throw a lot of gas. Kenny Rogers better beware, though.

Big Frank disappointed me. My first impression upon seeing him was "ok, -this- guy has got some power" but apparently he's just a big tall dude who strikes out. Or hits out.

10-15-2006, 09:49 PM

mr. dynamite

10-18-2006, 01:27 PM

Nothing strikes fear into the heart of the opposition like a 34 year-old backup player with sub-average career numbers in each major offensive category riding some good luck.

dont value clutch guys???
spiezio is a whole lot better than his numbers say... been watching all season and he has come through off the bench or starting for an injured player quite a few times for a 34 year old guy with sub average career numbers...

im sure youve seen those postseason batting statistics with runners in scoring position!

im not saying he is the best player ever or anything,
but he is a great guy to have on a team (especially during the playoffs!)

oh, and he is the best player ever.

Peter

10-18-2006, 01:55 PM

oh, and he is the best player ever.

:lol:

Kinbote

10-18-2006, 03:31 PM

Sample size, chum. "Clutch hitting" is largely a myth. Scott Spiezio blows.

Drunkenmaster

10-18-2006, 03:58 PM

Thanks. I have added it to my Wish List. Don't pay too much for it. I saw it at Booksamillion for $9.99

Kinbote

10-19-2006, 11:57 PM

Congratulations to the 2006 World Champion Detroit Tigers.

Peter

10-20-2006, 01:47 AM

I guess i suck balls at picking playoff winners . good thing i didn't have any bets made.

mr. dynamite

10-20-2006, 02:54 AM

jesus, even though the cards are going to lose in the series.... beltran striking out looking to lose game 7 feels pretty great to me as a cahhhdz fan

i just hope we dont get swept.

Narcissistic Nihilist

10-20-2006, 12:01 PM

jesus, even though the cards are going to lose in the series.... beltran striking out looking to lose game 7 feels pretty great to me as a cahhhdz fan

i just hope we dont get swept.

Nothing like confidence.

Peter

10-21-2006, 02:07 AM

The Cards came from a division where the #1 team got by with 83 wins. The Tigers won 95 games and were the wild card team! I think it's pretty clear who has the upper hand it. Not to mention that the Tigers have had a week off and relax and heal and study the cardinals top to bottom.

Kinbote

10-21-2006, 05:30 AM

I'd want the Cardinals to lose just because LaRussa's such an enormous douchebag. Not to mention maybe the most overrated manager ever.

Drunkenmaster

10-21-2006, 11:10 AM

Yeah, what does he have like a 5 and 12 WS record. Besides, there is a HUGE gap between the AL and the NL. I would not be surprised if the Tigers kept up the NL sweep.

Narcissistic Nihilist

10-21-2006, 11:26 PM

As I said, nothing like confidence.

Peter

10-22-2006, 03:02 AM

Pitch two rookies side by side and what happens? One chokes, the other doesn't. Cards up 1-0.

mr. dynamite

10-25-2006, 02:24 AM

cards up 2-1...
im liking it.

even if they lose, ill be happy for there to have been an interesting series.

Narcissistic Nihilist

10-25-2006, 02:40 AM

As I said, nothing like confidence

mr. dynamite

10-25-2006, 11:08 AM

bit of a one trick pony, ehh???

whatevz...

Narcissistic Nihilist

10-26-2006, 12:21 AM

bit of a one trick pony, ehh???

whatevz...

As I said, nothing like confidence.

Drunkenmaster

10-26-2006, 06:04 PM

I really believe this lay off favors the Cards much more than the Tiggers.

Kinbote

10-26-2006, 09:50 PM

I confess that I haven't been watching much of the postseason - I'm still defusing from Boston's collapse - but MY FUCKING GOD does Fox put together an atrocious broadcast.

How about SHUTTING UP and SHOWING THE GAME. I don't need these graphics. I don't need these crowd shots. I don't need these interviews. And I SURE AS FUCK don't need the wit and wisdom of Tim McCarver.

Seriously, Tim fucking McCarver - I'd rather listen to the trenchant analysis of Joe Morgan.

Drunkenmaster

10-26-2006, 09:57 PM

The coverage has been abhorrent. I don't need to see the cast of the OC or whatever other Fox people are out there. I don't care what was on Kenny Rogers' hand. I used to like Joe Buck, too but this is really dragging down his cred. I, too, would prefer Joe Morgan. He may make stupid comments but at least they're about baseball.

10-26-2006, 10:21 PM

There's too many ad breaks and boring stuff, I actually end up not being able to watch all that much without getting distracted to do something else.

Drunkenmaster

10-26-2006, 11:16 PM

The wheels are falling off of Detroit's bus as we speak.

Drunkenmaster

10-27-2006, 12:23 AM

Congratulations Cards. This one's done.

Drunkenmaster

10-27-2006, 12:32 AM

Eckstein played out of his mind tonight. 3 doubles? damn.

Narcissistic Nihilist

10-27-2006, 01:26 AM

I am not gonna say it again.

Kinbote

10-27-2006, 03:16 AM

Yeah, St. Louis had a 3-1 lead over Detroit in the 1968 Series, and that didn't work out so hot for them. And that was with Bob Gibson powering things along, not a historical nonentity like Jeff Suppan.

Kinbote

10-27-2006, 03:18 AM

Also, I really hate David Eckstein, and similar "scrappy" players. Diving a lot doesn't make up for a lack of skills.

mr. dynamite

10-27-2006, 11:21 AM

Narcissistic Nihilist

10-27-2006, 12:35 PM

I still really hope the Tigers will win. There is no reason why they cant, but its a tall order now. One slip up....

Kinbote

10-28-2006, 01:06 AM

so would you like to see baseball populated by tall, blond Aryan types?
what fun would that be?

also: eckstein has done a helluva job since coming to st. louis.... everybody pretty much loves him..... maybe the second most popular jersey behind pujols.

No, I like the current Dominican dominance. I'd like it if the fleet blacks of yore were to return, too.

Is this Cardinal team the worst team to ever win a championship? It seems probable. But that's what you get with a short series - luck doesn't have time to even out.

Or maybe - Terry, I wink in your direction - Jim Leyland's shit doesn't work in the postseason.

mr. dynamite

10-28-2006, 05:07 AM

damn.... word series champs... im fucking drunk

Narcissistic Nihilist

10-28-2006, 06:12 AM

Is this Cardinal team the worst team to ever win a championship? It seems probable. But that's what you get with a short series - luck doesn't have time to even out.
Yeah, it seems galling to me that a team with a worse record than the Phils in the season gets to not only go into postseason, but go on and win the damned thing.

Im sure I am not alone in this.

Drunkenmaster

10-28-2006, 10:34 AM

No, I like the current Dominican dominance. I'd like it if the fleet blacks of yore were to return, too.

Is this Cardinal team the worst team to ever win a championship? It seems probable. But that's what you get with a short series - luck doesn't have time to even out.

Or maybe - Terry, I wink in your direction - Jim Leyland's shit doesn't work in the postseason. Not only does Leyland's shit not work, he also has maybe the worst group of fielding pitchers I've ever seen.

Kinbote

10-28-2006, 10:30 PM

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/baseball/mlb/10/28/extra.mustard.game.5/index.html

Drunkenmaster

10-28-2006, 11:27 PM

"Tigers pitchers made five errors in 17 chances. The odds of that happening based on chance alone are 355-to-1 against."